Week 10 Superliga previews

Esbjerg-Silkeborg

Tuesday 20/9 19.00

Esbjerg have not done particularly well lately. I thought they were improving, but in the last two matches they have only had two shots on target. I think Esbjerg have a decent team and they are without important injuries, so eventually they should return to a better level, but currently they are not at their best. Silkeborg earned their first win of the season against AGF in the last round. They have actually done well in several matches, but lacked the decisive luck. I thought that we could see a repeat of a few seasons ago, where something similar happened to Silkeborg – they just could not get wins. The win last weekend could spark confidence, which should make Silkeborg even more difficult to play against. There are several reasons for optimism in Silkeborg. Central midfielder Moro looks like a good signing, while skilled winger Skov is finally on his way back. I am not too impressed by the Silkeborg defence though, and I still believe they are the weakest team in the league.

Silkeborg have more momentum at the moment. This won’t be easy for Esbjerg that has really struggled to make their game flow. If Silkeborg can contain Andersen and Mensah, they have excellent chances for earning points here. Sadly, the odds have dropped a lot from initial prices, so I can only suggest this as an idea pick.

Idea: 2 (AH +0.25) – 2.02 at SBOBet

Randers-FC Copenhagen

Wednesday 21/9 18.00

Randers played a decent match in Esbjerg in the last round. I think they were the better side and they coped well despite having to do without their two regular central defenders Agesen and Fenger. They will still be without the duo here, but on the positive side is the fact that replacements Bager and Enghardt have had one more match to build a partnership. The situation is obviously not ideal though. Randers have a generally solid team. They work hard and are physically strong. Furthermore, they have some quite dangerous strikers, so they should be a threat to ever opponent. FC Copenhagen are looking super strong this season. They completely dominated Horsens and won 2-0 on Sunday. It surprised me a bit that FC Copenhagen did not rotate more for that match. I think this could mean that some rotation could arrive here. It is important to note that FC Copenhagen’s B-team is almost as strong as the A-team, but rotating will almost always hurt a team as the continuity is lost. One thing is certain though and that is that FC Copenhagen will be without their best player, central midfielder Delaney who is banned. He is very important for FC Copenhagen and I suspect that their midfield will have a harder time with Kvist/Gregus or Kvist/Toutouh instead.

I have never seen Randers being such a huge underdog for a home win (odds 7.00). The last time the two teams in Randers in April, the price for home win was around 3.60! Yes, Copenhagen have improved since, but still quite a difference. When you add that FC Copenhagen have a tough schedule with two important tournaments (Champions League too), they might be less then fully fit/focused here. So despite of Randers central defense issues, which is of course concerning when facing the best side in the league, I think the price for the home side is just too much and don’t forget that FC Copenhagen have not been as powerful away this season (dropped points in Brøndby and Haderslev).

Recommendation: 1 (AH +1) – 1.88 at Pinnacle

AGF-FC Midtjylland

Wednesday 20/9 20.00

AGF have had a rather disappointing start to the season. However, when considering the many squad changes combined with injuries for key players, it should not be a huge surprise. AGF are still in phase where they are trying to integrate new players, while at the same time overcoming several absences. For this match, AGF will have to do without regular midfielders Olsen and Spelmann and central defender Soares. AGF do have replacements and they are in my opinion not the most important regulars, but they don’t have much left to bring from the bench. Looking at the fundamental stats, AGF are performing like a mid-table side. They do have some issues in getting shots fired in the penalty box, which is especially concerning since it is a big focus for the coaching staff. And like previous seasons, AGF are conceding goals way too easily – saving percentage of only 61% (league average is 70%). FC Midtjylland do have a lot of quality in their team and the recent performances suggest that they are starting to prove it. They have won the last two matches and been fairly dominant. I think they have some problems regarding the striker spot, where they need a consistent goalgetter, but the midfield is very strong. They have to do without central defender Banggaard due to a ban, but young Riis is a decent alternative. I also doubt winger Duelund will play after picking up an injury in the last match, but he is in the called squad. FC Midtjylland are a top 3 team when looking at fundamental stats – and I am quite sure that they will end up here when luck start to even out over a season.

AGF are not performing particularly well at the moment and they are struggling with absences, while FC Midtjylland are experiencing an improvement in performance and overall look a lot stronger. I have FC Midtjylland as clear favorite, but given the lack of striker power and the away role, I don’t think the price deserves more than an idea pick.

Idea: 2 – 2.05 at Pinnacle

Horsens-FC Nordsjælland

Wednesday 20/9 20.00

I doubt this match will have many viewers when competing with AGF-FC Midtjylland. Horsens are not playing pretty football, but they have been very efficient – and dare I say it: lucky. Danish media have talked about their efficiency as a sign of quality, but I disagree – it is mostly luck, and I am sure we will see Horsens decline once luck starts to fade. With that said, you most admire Horsens for the attitude and fighting spirit that is a part of their success so far. They were overmatched against FC Copenhagen in the last match, but have otherwise managed to keep matches quite tight. Horsens play very physical football, and they don’t want possession. They rely on set pieces and counter-attacks. Strong striker Bjerregaard left the last match with a dislocated shoulder and while he is in the called squad, I think it could be just in order to confuse the enemy. FC Nordsjælland lost 2-3 to SønderjyskE in the last round after leading 2-0 at half-time. A tough one for FC Nordsjælland that seems very weak mentally. No wonder as they have many young and inexperienced players. Head coach Hjulmand seems to be struggling to find the right players as he is constantly rotating. Especially the central midfield looks too weak, especially given FC Nordsjælland’s ball possessive nature. I have stats suggesting that FC Nordsjælland have been the weakest side in the league so far. They are not good enough at creating chances in dangerous positions, while the concede too many shots close to own goal. FC Nordsjælland are a team of many small and technical players, they tend to struggle against physical sides like SønderjyskE and Horsens.

Market started with FC Nordsjælland as favorites, which was a mistake. This is the worst kind of match for FC Nordsjælland. They are facing a physically strong and defensive minded side that rely on set pieces. Exactly what FC Nordsjælland hate and although I think Horsens have been incredibly lucky until now, I think they have the best cards for this match. No recommendation as I cannot look past the feeling that Horsens have been incredibly lucky until now.

Idea: 1 – 2.55 at Nordicbet

SønderjyskE-OB

Thursday 22/9 18.00

SønderjyskE finally got their first win of the season as the made a terrific comeback in FC Nordsjælland. Down 0-2 at half time they managed to win 3-2, and this should surely boost their confidence ahead of this match. SønderjyskE have had a rather poor start to the season, as it has been evident that they have struggled with focusing on two tournaments at the same time. Now they are knocked out of Europa League and should be able to find their feet in the league. SønderjyskE experimented with Fernandes in goal in the last match, but as he made two costly mistakes, Skender is likely to return. OB have had a terrible start to the season. They have lost four matches in a row. They have not been good, but also been quite unlucky in several matches. The poor start has also given confidence issues and with a large influx of injuries, OB are not looking good ahead of this match. Let’s run through the list of players not called up for the match: left back starter Pereira, left back back-up Barrett, right back starter Lund, rotation midfielder Thomasen, key striker Jacobsen. This is a long list and especially the backs are a problem. OB will be forced to use players out of position to cover this issue. At the same time, they look less frightening in attack without their best finisher Jacobsen.

OB have a lot of worries and low confidence, and this is set to be a tough match for them against a very physical SønderjyskE side. SønderjyskE look to be somewhat back on track and they will be eager to continue here. Odds have already dropped quite a bit and I think that this bet is just around my limit for value.

Idea: 1 (AH -0.25) – 1.88 at SBOBet

AaB-Viborg

Thursday 22/9 20.00

AaB played a rather poor match away to Lyngby in midweek and lost the second match in a row. They have deserved to lose some matches as the points earned is far above the actual quality delivered. AaB have a shots on target ratio (SoTR) of only 43% - only worth a 9th spot so far. The combination of a high scoring percentage and a high saving percentage is the reason for the success in points. I don’t see AaB continuing this trend. They need to improve their game significantly or they could drop out of top 6. For this match AaB will again be without vital central defender Holgersson and left back Ahlmann, something that made their defence look quite vulnerable against Lyngby. Offensively, they will be without regular attacker Enevoldsen. Enevoldsen was good last season, but has so far struggled to find the similar level. Young Pohl is set to get a chance instead. Viborg took an impressive win against Brøndby. They showed that they are an excellent counter-attacking side and that players like Deble, Park and Kamper can hurt every opponent. Defensively, Viborg are normally quite solid with a poor match against Horsens as an outlier. Viborg will welcome back central midfielder Keller. Viborg have a SoTR of 51% to a comparison.

AaB have been quite bad this season and they miss some important defenders. Viborg looked very strong in the last game, and their offensive players will surely be a problem for AaB’s vulnerable defence. I think AaB are too big favourites here. I think they will dominate possession, but Viborg will fancy that, as it should allow them to counter.

Recommendation: 2 (AH +0.5) – 1.87 at Pinnacle

Lyngby-Brøndby

Thursday 22/9 20.00

Promoted side Lyngby appear to be the strongest of the promoted sides. They have played several decent matches in a row and proved that they are capable of challenging the established Superliga teams. When looking at the fundamental stats, Lyngby have performed decent, but nothing more. I think they lack some quality in attack. They need a real goalscorer, and they tend to fire too many shots from the distance as a result. Defensively, they have been quite strong and rank around mid-table in terms of big chances allowed. They have a very strong goalkeeper and some veteran defenders. Brøndby suffered a set back by losing at home to Viborg. It was probably the worst match for Brøndby this season, as they failed to dominate the match in the same degree as they have done throughout the season. The players believe they made some strategic mistakes, and failed to play like they have done until now. I still think Brøndby look strong overall. Their match dominance throughout the season is only beaten by FC Copenhagen, and they have a really dangerous attack with Wilczek and Pukki. The injury to offensive midfielder Mukhtar is a problem, but apart from this, Brøndby should be able to field the strongest side here.

In my personal ranking, I have Lyngby as around 9th, while Brøndby are 2nd. Lyngby have done well given expectations, but I think this will be too much for them. Brøndby have done particularly well in away matches this season, and for the obvious reason that home teams come forward and allow Brøndby to win the ball with the opposition out of position. I don’t think Lyngby will just sit back here, why I think it will be difficult for them to get anything from the match. Overall, I think the price is set a bit wrong and it is enough to make this my Tip of the Week – value down to 1.75.

Tip of the Week: 2 – 1.85 at Nordicbet